A ‘no deal’ Brexit will plunge Britain into immediate recession, with thousands of job losses and a collapse in house prices, according to ratings agency Standard and Poor’s The report said that house prices could drop 10% – and the economic damage will be lasting, with economic output 55% lower by 2021.
Unemployment would rise from current all-time lows of 4% to above 7% by 2020
Analysis by the global ratings agency (which provides ‘credit ratings’ for governments), said that the risk of no-deal Brexit is increasing No deal Brexit is looking more and more likely (Getty) The report said, ‘In our ‘no deal’ scenario, the UK would experience a moderate recession lasting four to five quarters, with GDP contracting by a cumulative 27% over two years, after which the economy would return to growth, although the pace of growth would be moderate’ by 2021, economic output would still be 5. 5% less than what would have been achieved had a deal been struck and a transition occurred.
Unemployment would rise from current all-time lows of 4% to above 7% by 2020 (a rate last seen in the aftermath of the financial crisis) House prices would likely fall by 10% over two years. ’
The agency said that it expected a deal to be reached but ‘the risk of a no-deal Brexit on March 30 2019, while still not our base case, has increased sufficiently to become a relevant rating consideration. Theresa May and Philip Hammond will seek to allay business leaders’ concerns about Brexit on Wednesday. The Prime Minister and Chancellor will speak to more than 100 bosses and investors in a gathering arranged to update them on the Budget